Five-year forecast
The trajectory is the story. The $158 million headline is the opening line.
Before the August restructuring, the City’s own May 2026 forecast showed the General Fund ending balance collapsing from a reserve-supported FY2027 into a $264 million hole by FY2031[3]. The proposed plan fills FY27 and FY28. It does not fill the decade.
| Year | Revenue (May) | Expense (May) | Operating gap | Ending (May) | After plan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 | $1.69B | $1.80B | −$110M | +$32.9M | $0 |
| FY2028 | $1.71B | $1.87B | −$161M | −$131M | $0 |
| FY2029 | $1.74B | $1.94B | −$202M | −$206M | −$38M |
| FY2030 | $1.79B | $2.02B | −$231M | −$238M | −$87M |
| FY2031 | $1.84B | $2.09B | −$256M | −$264M | −$136M |
May columns are the City’s FY2027–FY2031 Five-Year Financial Forecast[3]. FY2027 ending of +$32.9M is after use of resources and reserves, not an operating surplus. After-plan FY29 (−$38M) and FY31 (−$136M) are reported residuals[6]; FY30 is interpolated.
The mismatch
+2.1% revenue vs +3.8% expense
That is the May forecast’s compound rate. A 3% civilian raise is not 3% once — it is the new base, plus benefits, plus the next raise. Fire’s agreement adds $14.56M of incremental FY27 cost on its own[3]. SAPOA’s contract expires September 30, 2026 — the day before the fiscal year these numbers claim to have solved.
Taxable value path (May)
- FY2026base −0.90% · new +1.76% · total +0.86%
- FY2027base −3.54% · new +1.41% · total −2.13%
- FY2028base −1.25% · new +1.25% · total 0.00%
- FY2029base −0.75% · new +1.25% · total +0.50%
- FY2030base +1.00% · new +1.50% · total +2.50%
- FY2031base +1.50% · new +1.50% · total +3.00%
Housing cooled. Permits were projected 23.5% below FY25 as of March. HB 9 takes about $9.2M off FY27 property tax[3].
CPS concentration
Proposed FY27 books $548M from CPS Energy — larger than property tax, about 31% of the General Fund. FY26 is running near $559M against a $504.4M budget because of off-system sales. The City warns the payment moves with weather, gas, demand, generation mix, and plant maintenance[3]. A city that used a municipally owned utility to avoid a tax increase for 34 years is now raising the rate anyway[11]. That is the tell.
Residual after the August plan still includes a $38.0M FY29 gap and about $136M by FY31[6]. The two-year close is real. The structural close is not.