Methodology · August 25, 2026
Every figure has a parent. The model has a disclaimer.
The Ledger is an independent public briefing by The AI Cowboys. It is not a City of San Antonio document, not an OMB model, and not investment advice. We use the City’s published numbers wherever they exist, cite them in place, and label reconstructions when we have to do arithmetic the City did not print as a single line.
What we will not write
- “San Antonio has a $158 million deficit” as a stand-alone sentence. The legally required budget is balanced. The $157.7–$158M figure is a two-year General Fund funding gap that had to be closed[1][9].
- That the City is broke. Moody’s AAA, S&P AAA, Fitch AA+ as of the May forecast[3].
- Invented department totals. Where FY26 comparables are reconstructed from reported growth rates, the table says so.
- Invented service counts on the sliders. Parks consequences cite the nine greenway miles, 158 acres, and 12 playgrounds in the proposal — not a made-up pool list.
Reconstructions
- Two-year close remainder of 37.7 million = $157.7M gap − $89.6M cuts − $30.4M fees. We label it “property-tax rate, banked capacity, and forecast updates” because the City has not published that remainder as one line.
- FY2030 after-plan residual is a linear interpolation between the reported FY29 (−$38M) and FY31 (−$136M) figures[6].
- Animal Care FY26 is backed out from the reported 12.3% increase to $38M[7].
- Homeowner arithmetic on $231,356 taxable value at a 2.129¢ rate change is ~$49/year. The City’s published $2.95/month uses a different “average homeowner” definition. Both are shown.
- The taxpayer receipt scales the proposed General Fund spend mix to the city property-tax bill on the taxable value you type. CPS and sales tax are shown separately as a $100 revenue mix — they are not inside that homestead check.
- The $1,760 paycheck and the 10×10 dollar grid are a scale, not a new dataset. Each dollar of the paycheck is $1 million of the $1.76 billion General Fund. Grid cells round each department to a whole dollar so they sum to 100 (Police 38, Fire 26, Streets 6, Parks 4, Libraries 3, Animal Care 2, Senior 2, everything else 19). Exact shares are on the receipt. We do not invent pool counts, trail miles, or renter pass-through dollars.
- The walk and the would-you-rathers use the same August 13 proposal, the same unused levers, and the same model as the tradeoff machine. A household value typed on any page is stored only in this browser (localStorage). It is never sent to a server.
- Share cards and captions recompute the homestead arithmetic at the typed taxable value. Over-65/disabled freeze and renter paths do not invent a dollar — they state that the freeze holds the bill, and that renters already pay the 14% CPS cut and sales tax.
- Austin Energy’s general-fund transfer is $115 million for the year ended September 30, 2024[33]. That is a capped dollar transfer, not a 14% PILOT. We do not invent Houston or Dallas franchise shares, or a $300 million hit from a 5% cap. SB 1110 (2023) would have barred the transfer; staff said it threatened more than a quarter of general revenue[34].
- Midtown captured value $2,067M = $2.6B taxable − $533M base. Times the current city rate is ~$11.2M; staff told the board “nearly $10 million.” We model $10M. TIRZ recapture in the machine is unpledged city increment only, capped at $25M of a $45M FY25 capture — not Houston Street ballpark bonds, not the 2060 extension.
No database
Every figure is compiled from the source list below and computed in the browser. There is no login, no account, and no backend store. The household value, language, and district live in this browser only. If the plan, the rate, the cuts, or the FY29 residual moves before September 17, we restamp the files — we do not query a city feed.
Tradeoff machine
The machine starts at the August 13 proposed plan (FY27 and FY28 treated as closed, FY29 at −$38M, FY31 at −$136M). Department sliders are dollar-for-dollar on the General Fund. Growth applies $12.6M per extra percentage point of tax-base, lagged. Fees are 75% recurring. Unused levers (TIRZ, airport, EDIF, overtime-plus, Marvel I&S, enterprise true-up, event cost recovery, and the $6.5M grant list) are treated as recurring GF relief. Ready to Work and extra reserve above the 15% policy are split across two years and do not flow into FY29. TIRZ is capped in the model at $25M against a $45M FY25 capture and is labeled unpledged-only — bonded increment is off limits. Midtown’s ~$10M annual increment sits inside that $45M. The TIRZ page separates four doors: participation cut (FY27 cash), extra-territorial freeze (capital), 2060 extension (after 2041), and natural sunset. This is a teaching model, not OMB.
Sources
- [1]FY2027 Proposed Budget presented to Mayor & City CouncilCity of San Antonio · 2026-08-13
- [2]FY2026 Adopted Operating & Capital BudgetCity of San Antonio, Office of Management & Budget · 2025-09-18
- [3]Five-Year Financial Forecast, FY2027–FY2031City of San Antonio, Office of Management & Budget · 2026-05-06
- [4]FY2027 Budget CalendarCity of San Antonio, Office of Management & Budget · 2026-08-13
- [5]Office of Management & Budget — proposed budget hubCity of San Antonio · 2026-08-13
- [6]San Antonio pitches 3.9% property tax increase as budget worsensSan Antonio Report · 2026-08-13
- [7]Police, fire, and Animal Care spending in the proposed budgetSan Antonio Report · 2026-08-14
- [8]Arena debate as Council faces $158 million shortfallKSAT · 2026-08-07
- [9]What to know about San Antonio’s $157.7 million budget gapKENS 5 · 2026-08-12
- [10]Department cuts, new fees and higher property taxesKENS 5 · 2026-08-13
- [11]First property-tax increase in 34 years under considerationKSAT 12 · 2026-08-13
- [12]FY2026 proposed budget of $4B — public safety shareTexas Public Radio · 2025-08-14
- [13]Council adopts $4.04 billion FY2026 budgetCommunity Impact · 2025-09-19
- [14]At D1 town hall, Jones warns of deeper cutsSan Antonio Report · 2026-07-30
- [15]TIRZ explained: ballpark, Spurs arena, and $45M captured from the levySan Antonio Report · 2026-08-09
- [16]Midtown TIRZ board: $2.6B taxable, ~$10M increment, 2060 extension for MarvelSan Antonio Report · 2026-08-20
- [17]City considers extending Midtown TIRZ to 2060 to buy the arena siteSan Antonio Report · 2026-08-17
- [18]Jones floats ending Ready to Work early to close the gapSan Antonio Report · 2026-07-22
- [19]Jones proposes killing Ready to Work: $235.8M collected, $123.8M remainsSan Antonio Express-News · 2026-07-21
- [20]Council bats down second arena-funding vote, 5–6KSAT · 2026-08-17
- [21]Mayor Jones on the Marvel defeat, TIRZ blight, and an 8.3% two-year tax pathKSAT · 2026-08-18
- [22]Council rejects public vote on the $489M Spurs contributionSan Antonio Report · 2026-08-17
- [23]City spends ~$3M a year on Fiesta; trial budget recovers ~$700k moreSan Antonio Report · 2026-06-19
- [24]FY2027 draft recovers half of Fiesta police costs; Jones wants moreKSAT · 2026-08-15
- [25]Jones asked business to replace $6.5M for 15 nonprofits. Nobody took it.San Antonio Express-News · 2026-08-24
- [26]Fifteen nonprofits, $6.5M in FY26 city dollars, on Jones’s cut listKSAT · 2026-07-26
- [27]Texas Tax Code Chapter 311 — Tax Increment Financing ActTexas Legislature · 2025-01-01
- [28]Chapter 311 FAQ — increment, participation, termination, surplusTexas Comptroller of Public Accounts · 2023-01-01
- [29]“Population” means the last federal decennial censusTexas Government Code §§ 311.005, 312.011 · 2025-01-01
- [30]Bexar County: 2020 census 2,009,324; July 2025 estimate 2,160,088U.S. Census Bureau · 2026-03-27
- [31]City-initiated TIRZ list — Midtown through FY2041, Mission Drive-In through FY2028City of San Antonio, Neighborhood & Housing Services · 2026-08-01
- [32]Abbott energy plan and the 14% CPS cut of gas and electric billsKSAT · 2026-08-06
- [33]Austin Energy by the numbers — FY2024 general-fund transferAustin Energy · 2024-09-30
- [34]SB 1110 (2023) would have barred municipal-utility transfers to city budgetsSan Antonio Report · 2023-03-08
Built in San Antonio by The AI Cowboys. Last verified August 25, 2026. We will restamp figures if the plan, the rate, the cuts, or the FY29 residual moves before September 17.
