Tradeoff machine
Move the large numbers. Watch FY2029 refuse to die.
Starting point is the City Manager’s August 13 plan. Unused levers — TIRZ, Airport Fund, CPS floor, Marvel I&S, a gated Ready to Work slice — are scored on Solutions. The TIRZ slider is unpledged city increment only (formula). CPS is 31% of the General Fund (14%). Citizens don’t pay zeros the rate and the new fees. Close FY29, no household takes more of the same piles[1].
Tax the homestead, raise fees, cut $89.6M. FY27–FY28 close. FY29 reopens.
What households pay
What the homestead pays.
Current 0.54159. Proposed 0.56288. Jones has also described an 8.3% two-year path (3.9% then 4.4%).
Not a tax. Still your bill.
Proposed ~$30.4M over two years. Trash, ambulance, permits, Alamodome parking, library fines. Still a household bill.
Money that is not the homestead
Stop trapping tax growth in the Pearl and eight other zones.
FY25 capture ~$45M. Only unpledged city increment is in play — open TIRZ for the formula. Default $12M is a 27% haircut. Houston Street ballpark bonds are off-limits. Killing 2060 is not FY27 cash.
Airlines pay for airport cops.
27 of 49 new officer slots are for Terminal C. Charge the $185.9M Airport Fund, not the homestead.
Keep the utility windfall. Not a higher electric bill if off-system holds.
Proposed $547.8M. FY26 run-rate ~$559M from off-system sales. A floor is not a retail rate hike if that source holds.
Don’t put the Spurs arena on the tax-rate credit card.
Don’t put the $489M city slice, or a Midtown TIRZ land buy, on the tax rate. Debt service is part of the $0.56288.
Voters already paid this 1/8¢. New purpose needs a new vote.
One-time. ~$100–$124M remains. New purposes need a vote. Jones says some GF backfill may not. Does not fix FY2029.
Stop writing new incentive checks while claiming poverty.
Proposed incentive fund is $5.6M. Freeze new abatements. Existing contracts stay.
Leave vacancies empty. The police contract is unsigned.
On top of Walsh’s $5.4M police + $3.7M fire. Leave vacancies empty. SAPOA expires Sept 30.
Make the airport and trash collection pay their own admin.
Airport, solid waste, development services, parking reimburse GF for 311, legal, IT, fleet.
If they sell tickets, they cover their cops.
Walsh recovers ~$0.71M more of Fiesta police cost. Jones asked for the rest. City Fiesta spend is ~$3M/year.
Don’t grow the rainy-day fund in the same ordinance that raises the rate.
August plan described as 15% plus $48M extra. One-time. Keep the 15% floor. Does not fix FY2029.
The Book Festival is 4% of the hole.
Botanical Garden, Book Festival, Education Partnership, etc. $6.5M. Jones asked philanthropy. Nobody wrote the check. Small against $158M.
Grow jobs and taxable value instead of redistributing the existing pie.
The fourth lever: grow the base. Not a 2027 ordinance.
Department spending
Proposed $676.5M, up 7% from $632M.
Proposed $451.2M, up 5.3%. Labor agreement already adds $14.56M.
Proposed $71.1M — 4% of the General Fund.
Proposed GF streets $111.8M.
Proposed $58.1M.
Proposed $38M, up 12.3%.
Proposed $31.2M, three nutrition sites closed.
The leftover 18%.
Verdict
Balanced on paper. The paper runs out in FY2029.
FY2027 and FY2028 can be forced to zero. The structural gap — expenses compounding faster than revenue — reappears the moment the two-year patch expires.
Ending position vs. proposed plan
$0 is the City Manager’s FY27/FY28 close. Negative means you reopened a hole. FY29 starts at −$38M; FY31 at −$136M[6].
Your house
- Annual change vs current rate
- +$49
- Per month
- +$4.10
City published $2.95/mo for the “average homeowner” at the proposed rate[1]. On the $231,356 taxable home used in local reporting, the arithmetic is $4.10/mo[6]. Frozen 65+ and disabled homesteads do not see the rate increase.
Where your city tax goes
Human brains bounce off $1.76 billion. They do not bounce off a household bill. This is how the General Fund spends, scaled to your city property-tax payment at the rate on the sliders[1].
City property tax on this taxable value. Not CPS. Not sales tax.
- Police 38%$501
- Fire 26%$334
- Parks 4%$53
- Streets 6%$83
- Libraries 3%$43
- Animal Care 2%$28
- Senior & HHS 2%$23
- Everything else 18%$238
Police + Fire are 64% of this mix. Zero Parks and you have not touched the problem.
Where City Hall’s $100 comes from
- CPS Energy$31
- Property tax$28
- Sales tax$24
- All other GF revenue$17
Per $100 of General Fund revenue. CPS Energy’s $547.8M is larger than the property tax. Your homestead rate is not how most of this budget is paid.
Deltas from the proposal
- Property tax$0
- CPS Energy$0
- Fees (two-year)$0
- Unused levers (recurring)$0
- One-time (RTW + extra reserve)$0
- From spending$0
- Growth, FY29$0
Police + Fire are 64% of this GF mix. This mix still raises a household bill.